Last week, the US Securities and Exchange Commission filed an appeal in the case against Ripple Labs.

This has been one of the most highly anticipated moves, and many speculated that the watchdog would forego its right to do so because its chances of winning are slim.

This is also probably the reason why XRP’s price nosedived by more than 12% on the news, clearly surprising a number of traders.

Now, attorney Fred Rispoli discusses the odds of the Commission being successful in its efforts to overturn Judge Torres’ decision. Recall that she ruled that institutional XRP sales are classified as investment contracts, but programmatic sales of XRP on exchanges are not. She also reduced the fines the SEC claimed by more than 90%.

Talking to the “Thinking Crypto” podcast, Rispoli said that the probability of the SEC’s win will largely depend on who is assigned to the case panel.

“If there’s a panel that has a long history of agreeing with the government on everything, SEC’s chances go up. You know, there could be a 70,80% chance that they’re going to win.”

It’s also worth noting that the SEC is yet to specify which part of the decision it’s appealing. This is an important detail, and it will surely shape the outcome of the case.

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