“Short-term holders keep suffering as this correction drags on,” said CryptoQuant analyst ‘Darkfost’ on Wednesday.

The short-term holder cost basis is around $94,200, and with BTC back at around $67,000, the price gap has now reached 28%, they said.

“So we can roughly estimate an average unrealized loss of about 28% for STHs, if we simplify things.”

Not a Correction, But Bear Market

The analyst noted that Bitcoin’s price has been trading below the STH cost basis for four months, “marking their longest period of stress so far.”

They added that it was unusual for this cycle and “suggests that the current correction is increasingly resembling a bear market.” During the two previous bear markets, this situation lasted for a little over a year, the analyst cautioned.

Short term holders keep suffering as this correction drags on.

With an STH cost basis of around $94,200 and BTC at $68,000, the price gap has now reached 28%.

So we can roughly estimate an average unrealized loss of about 28% for STHs, if we simplify things.

But that is not… pic.twitter.com/MnLcbAgHCx

— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) February 11, 2026

A “lack of fresh capital” is reinforcing bear conditions, confirmed CryptoQuant on Wednesday, with analysts stating that new investor inflows have flipped negative.

“The sell-off is not being absorbed by fresh capital. In bull markets, drawdowns attract accelerating capital. In early bear markets, weakness triggers withdrawal.”

Analyst ‘Daan Trades Crypto’ said that after holding the .382 Fibonacci retracement temporarily, the price eventually fell through and broke the pattern it had held this cycle.

“The .618 Fibonacci retracement level has historically always been another important one to watch during larger drawdowns,” he added. This level is currently around $57,800 and could be the next support zone.

Bitfinex analysts were a little more positive, observing that Bitcoin long-term holder supply has turned up after months of distribution, and is now back near 14.3 million BTC.

“If this buildup continues, it supports the view that this is a mid-cycle reset, not a final top,” they said.

Bitcoin long term holder supply has turned up after months of distribution, now back near 14.3M BTC.

In past cycles fresh highs in LTH supply led $BTC by roughly 3–4 months.

If this build up continues, it supports the view that this is a mid cycle reset, not a final top. pic.twitter.com/EJ0Q87vp7d

— Bitfinex (@bitfinex) February 11, 2026

Bitcoin Falls to $66,000

Short term holder loses are even worse with Bitcoin’s collapse back to just under $66,000 in late trading on Wednesday. The asset was trading at $67,200 on Thursday morning in Asia, but the path of least resistance remains down.

Ether failed to hold above the psychological $2,000 level and crashed back to $1,950 on Wednesday, failing to reclaim it at the time of writing. ETH is now trading at March 2025 lows, but it has yet to dip as low as the April 2025 crash.

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